Imisli FK
vs
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Imisli FK 0–1 Şamaxı FK
The model makes it 32% Imisli FK, 31% draw, 37% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Imisli FK 1.05, Şamaxı FK 1.19.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Şamaxı FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Imisli FK are 10th on 4 points from 7 games; Şamaxı FK are 7th on 10 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Imisli FK are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Qarabag.
- Şamaxı FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Zira.
- Last 6 meetings: Şamaxı FK 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Şamaxı FK 0–0 Imisli FK.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Şamaxı FK at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
Imisli FK
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sabah FA19 September 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Qabala4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku29 August 2026
Şamaxı FK
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala29 August 2026
What these results say
- Imisli FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Imisli FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Imisli FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
Şamaxı FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
- 8 March 2026Şamaxı FK 0–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 22 February 2026Imisli FK 0–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 7 November 2025Şamaxı FK 1–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 29 March 2024Imisli FK 0–0 Şamaxı FKBirinci Dasta
- 14 December 2023Şamaxı FK 0–0 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta
- 28 September 2023Imisli FK 0–3 Şamaxı FKBirinci Dasta
The two sides
Imisli FK carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.35 for Şamaxı FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Imisli FK and 1.19 for Şamaxı FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Imisli FK rate 0.43 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Şamaxı FK rate 0.55 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Şamaxı FK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Imisli FK against 1.19 for Şamaxı FK. Imisli FK's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.5 for Şamaxı FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Imisli FK at home · Şamaxı FK away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Imisli FK 7, Şamaxı FK 7.
Şamaxı FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Imisli FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Imisli FK
- at Kapaz31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 25%
- vs Sumqayıt7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- vs Zira21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 29%
- vs Safa Baku28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 44%
Şamaxı FK
- vs Neftchi Baku31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- at Sabah FA7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 10%
- vs Turan21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 35%
- vs Qabala28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.