SC Paderborn 07
vs
VfB Stuttgart
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 26% SC Paderborn 07, 31% draw, 43% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.85, 3.23 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: SC Paderborn 07 0.84, VfB Stuttgart 1.24.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: VfB Stuttgart are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to SC Paderborn 07.
- Last 4 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- SC Paderborn 0724%
- Level after ninety minutes31%
- VfB Stuttgart45%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfB Stuttgart at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
- W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W3-1Viking9 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- 10 October 2026SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 31 January 2023SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
- 23 May 2015SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 20 December 2014VfB Stuttgart 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
The two sides
SC Paderborn 07 carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.97 for VfB Stuttgart. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.57 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfB Stuttgart rate 1.16 and 0.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart. SC Paderborn 07's attack/defence rating is 0.57/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.91 for VfB Stuttgart.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Paderborn 07 at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Paderborn 07 5, VfB Stuttgart 5.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); SC Paderborn 07 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Paderborn 07
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach31 Oct · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt7 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- at Bayer Leverkusen21 Nov · Bundesligawin 13%
- vs FC Schalke 0428 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
VfB Stuttgart
- at Bayer Leverkusen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 25%
- at Galatasaray3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.