Regular Season - 11 · 30 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

ZOB Ahan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction

Foolad Shahr Stadium, Isfahan

Our model says: ZOB Ahan 1–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan

The model makes it 46% ZOB Ahan, 29% draw, 25% Esteghlal Khuzestan — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: ZOB Ahan 1.48, Esteghlal Khuzestan 0.95.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Key facts

  • ZOB Ahan are 14th on 7 points from 8 games; Esteghlal Khuzestan are 16th on 6 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
  • ZOB Ahan are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Sepahan FC.
  • Esteghlal Khuzestan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Gol Gohar.
  • Last 6 meetings: ZOB Ahan 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 December 2025, ended Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–0 ZOB Ahan.

More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions

All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ZOB Ahan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

48%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ZOB Ahan win Draw Esteghlal Khuzestan win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read ZOB Ahan first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 33%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ZOB Ahan at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ZOB Ahan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

ZOB Ahan

  • L1-2Sepahan FC13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Nassaji Mazandaran8 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Persepolis FC7 September 2026
  • W1-0Paykan2 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Fajr Sepasi29 August 2026

Esteghlal Khuzestan

  • L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
  • W1-0Tractor Sazi10 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Sepahan FC6 September 2026
  • D1-1Chadormalu SC1 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Paykan28 August 2026

What these results say

  • ZOB Ahan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for ZOB Ahan had two goals or fewer.
  • Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Esteghlal Khuzestan had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14ZOB Ahan814358-37
16Esteghlal Khuzestan8134412-86

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: ZOB Ahan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

  • 25 December 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–0 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 17 April 2025ZOB Ahan 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 10 December 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 13 March 2024ZOB Ahan 0–2 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 21 September 2023Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–2 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 17 March 2019ZOB Ahan 2–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

ZOB Ahan carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.18 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for ZOB Ahan and 0.95 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

ZOB Ahan rate 0.48 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esteghlal Khuzestan rate 0.49 and 1.89.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ZOB Ahan the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for ZOB Ahan against 0.95 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. ZOB Ahan's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.89 for Esteghlal Khuzestan.

Season stats

ZOB AhanEsteghlal Khuzestan
8Matches8
1W 4D 3LRecord1W 3D 4L
5 0.6 per gameGoals scored4 0.5 per game
8 1.0 per gameGoals conceded12 1.5 per game
3 of 8Clean sheets2 of 8
3 of 8Failed to score4 of 8
–Penalties scored–
10 1.3 per gameYellow cards5 0.6 per game
2Red cards0

ZOB Ahan at home · Esteghlal Khuzestan away

4Played4
1W 2D 1LRecord0W 1D 3L
3–3Goals for – against1–8
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: ZOB Ahan 8, Esteghlal Khuzestan 8.

ZOB Ahan scored 011103
Esteghlal Khuzestan conceded 240223

ZOB Ahan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Esteghlal Khuzestan have let in 3 there.

Esteghlal Khuzestan scored 000120
ZOB Ahan conceded 111022

Esteghlal Khuzestan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); ZOB Ahan have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

Next match, by difficulty

ZOB Ahan

  • at Gol Gohar8 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%

Esteghlal Khuzestan

  • vs Esteghlal FC7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.