America de Cali
vs
Fortaleza FC
Primera A prediction
Our model says: America de Cali 1–0 Fortaleza FC
The model makes it 60% America de Cali, 25% draw, 15% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: America de Cali 1.87, Fortaleza FC 0.67.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: America de Cali are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- America de Cali are top on 27 points from 13 games; Fortaleza FC are 17th on 11 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- America de Cali have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Independiente Medellin.
- Fortaleza FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Millonarios.
- Last 5 meetings: America de Cali 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Fortaleza FC 1–2 America de Cali.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
Fortaleza FC
- D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
What these results say
- America de Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 27 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC
- 23 April 2026Fortaleza FC 1–2 America de CaliPrimera A
- 13 September 2025Fortaleza FC 1–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 31 March 2025America de Cali 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 29 September 2024America de Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 18 March 2024Fortaleza FC 0–0 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán186
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
America de Cali carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.35 for Fortaleza FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for America de Cali and 0.67 for Fortaleza FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
America de Cali rate 0.79 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza FC rate 0.60 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives America de Cali a 24.7% chance of the title and Fortaleza FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for America de Cali against 0.67 for Fortaleza FC. America de Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.63 for Fortaleza FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
America de Cali at home · Fortaleza FC away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: America de Cali 33, Fortaleza FC 32.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Fortaleza FC have let in 9 there.
Fortaleza FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); America de Cali have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
America de Cali
- at Millonarios4 Nov · Primera Awin 29%
- vs Deportivo Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 43%
- at Deportivo Pereira12 Nov · Primera Awin 49%
Fortaleza FC
- at Águilas Doradas2 Nov · Primera Awin 24%
- vs Independiente Medellin7 Nov · Primera Awin 34%
- at Bucaramanga12 Nov · Primera Awin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.