Torreense
vs
Amarante
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Torreense 2–0 Amarante
The model makes it 61% Torreense, 23% draw, 16% Amarante — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Torreense 2.07, Amarante 0.82.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Torreense are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Torreense are 15th on 6 points from 7 games; Amarante are 16th on 5 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Torreense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Tondela.
- Amarante are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Portimonense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torreense vs Amarante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torreense at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Torreense vs Amarante
Torreense
- L0-1away to Tondela10 October 2026
- D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026
- W2-0away to Benfica B5 September 2026
- L0-3Vizela29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa22 August 2026
Amarante
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
What these results say
- Torreense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Torreense
Chance to finish in the top four · 32% today
Amarante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Torreense carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.27 for Amarante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Torreense and 0.82 for Amarante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torreense rate 0.73 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amarante rate 0.55 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torreense a 6.4% chance of the title and Amarante 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torreense the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Torreense against 0.82 for Amarante. Torreense's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.74 for Amarante.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torreense at home · Amarante away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Torreense 7, Amarante 7.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Amarante have let in 1 there.
Amarante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Torreense have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Torreense
- at Portimonense31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- vs Ararat-Armenia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 66%
- vs União de Leiria9 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
Amarante
- vs FC Porto B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- at Academica7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Felgueiras 193215 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs AVS6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.