AC Horsens
vs
Sonderjyske
Superliga prediction
Our model says: AC Horsens 2–1 Sonderjyske
The model makes it 54% AC Horsens, 22% draw, 24% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: AC Horsens 2.48, Sonderjyske 1.54.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to AC Horsens: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AC Horsens are 6th on 12 points from 10 games; Sonderjyske are bottom on 5 points from 10 games — Superliga.
- AC Horsens are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Silkeborg.
- Sonderjyske have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Aarhus.
- Last 6 meetings: Sonderjyske 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Sonderjyske 2–5 AC Horsens.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Horsens at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske
AC Horsens
- D3-3away to Silkeborg11 October 2026
- D2-2Aarhus20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen11 September 2026
- W5-2away to Sonderjyske6 September 2026
- L2-3Viborg28 August 2026
Sonderjyske
- L0-3away to Aarhus12 October 2026
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Copenhagen31 August 2026
What these results say
- AC Horsens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC Horsens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AC Horsens
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Sonderjyske
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 82% today
From our Superliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske
- 6 September 2026Sonderjyske 2–5 AC HorsensSuperliga
- 9 March 2024AC Horsens 1–4 Sonderjyske1. Division
- 12 August 2023Sonderjyske 5–0 AC Horsens1. Division
- 9 August 2023AC Horsens 1–2 SonderjyskeDBU Pokalen
- 20 May 2021AC Horsens 1–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 11 April 2021Sonderjyske 2–3 AC HorsensSuperliga
Leading scorers: AC Horsens and Sonderjyske
AC Horsens
GoalsAssists
- K. Ehibhatiomhan40
Sonderjyske
GoalsAssists
- M. Haidara40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AC Horsens carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.39 for Sonderjyske. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for AC Horsens and 1.54 for Sonderjyske. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Horsens rate 0.86 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sonderjyske rate 0.66 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AC Horsens a 0.1% chance of the title and Sonderjyske 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Horsens the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for AC Horsens against 1.54 for Sonderjyske. AC Horsens's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.65 for Sonderjyske.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AC Horsens at home · Sonderjyske away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AC HorsensSonderjyske
AC Horsens are 6th after 10 Superliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Sonderjyske are 12th after 10 (between 11th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: AC Horsens 10, Sonderjyske 10.
AC Horsens score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sonderjyske have let in 3 there.
Sonderjyske score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); AC Horsens have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AC Horsens
- at Viborg1 Nov · Superligawin 27%
- at Aarhus8 Nov · Superligawin 29%
- vs Silkeborg22 Nov · Superligawin 48%
- at Randers FC29 Nov · Superligawin 42%
Sonderjyske
- vs FC Copenhagen2 Nov · Superligawin 19%
- at FC Midtjylland8 Nov · Superligawin 12%
- vs Odense22 Nov · Superligawin 37%
- vs Brondby27 Nov · Superligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.