Zamalek SC
vs
El Mokawloon
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Zamalek SC 1–0 El Mokawloon
The model makes it 45% Zamalek SC, 32% draw, 23% El Mokawloon — fair odds of 2.22, 3.13 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Zamalek SC 1.21, El Mokawloon 0.73.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Zamalek SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Zamalek SC are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; El Mokawloon are 8th on 8 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Zamalek SC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Al Ahly.
- El Mokawloon are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Masr.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2025, ended Zamalek SC 0–0 El Mokawloon.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zamalek SC at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
Zamalek SC
- L0-2Al Ahly11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ghazl El Mehalla16 September 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
- W2-1Petrojet31 August 2026
- W3-0away to National Bank of Egypt26 August 2026
El Mokawloon
- D1-1Masr12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Wadi Degla15 September 2026
- D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
- W1-0away to El Gouna FC2 September 2026
- L2-3Al Masry27 August 2026
What these results say
- Zamalek SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zamalek SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- El Mokawloon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for El Mokawloon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
- 16 August 2025Zamalek SC 0–0 El MokawloonPremier League
- 29 July 2024El Mokawloon 2–1 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 25 September 2023Zamalek SC 1–1 El MokawloonPremier League
- 4 July 2023Zamalek SC 6–1 El MokawloonCup
- 17 April 2023Zamalek SC 2–2 El MokawloonPremier League
- 25 December 2022El Mokawloon 0–0 Zamalek SCPremier League
Leading scorers: Zamalek SC and El Mokawloon
Zamalek SC
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Ashraf20
- Ahmed Sherif20
El Mokawloon
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zamalek SC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.39 for El Mokawloon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Zamalek SC and 0.73 for El Mokawloon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zamalek SC rate 0.70 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; El Mokawloon rate 0.61 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zamalek SC a 5.9% chance of the title and El Mokawloon 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zamalek SC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Zamalek SC against 0.73 for El Mokawloon. Zamalek SC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.54 for El Mokawloon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zamalek SC at home · El Mokawloon away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Zamalek SC 6, El Mokawloon 6.
Zamalek SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); El Mokawloon have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zamalek SC
- at El Gouna FC23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Al Masry9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- at Smouha SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs El Geish23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 53%
El Mokawloon
- vs Olympic El Qanah25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Ceramica Cleopatra8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Future FC16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Ghazl El Mehalla22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.