Heart of Midlothian
vs
Rangers
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 2–1 Rangers
The model makes it 42% Heart of Midlothian, 25% draw, 33% Rangers — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.77, Rangers 1.51.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Heart of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; Rangers are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to St Mirren.
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kilmarnock.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended Heart of Midlothian 2–1 Rangers.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers
Heart of Midlothian
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
Rangers
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk2 September 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
- Rangers won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers
- 4 May 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–1 RangersPremiership
- 15 February 2026Rangers 4–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 21 December 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–1 RangersPremiership
- 13 September 2025Rangers 0–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 16 February 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–3 RangersPremiership
- 10 November 2024Rangers 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Rangers
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- J. McPake34
- Cláudio Braga32
- C. Miller31
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi41
- L. Shankland30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.71 for Rangers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.51 for Rangers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.87 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rangers rate 0.91 and 1.21.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rangers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heart of Midlothian a 11.5% chance of the title and Rangers 22.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.51 for Rangers. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.21 for Rangers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heart of Midlothian at home · Rangers away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Heart of MidlothianRangers
Heart of Midlothian are 2nd after 8 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Rangers are 1st after 8 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Heart of Midlothian 8, Rangers 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Heart of Midlothian
- at Dundee United31 Oct · Premiershipwin 48%
Rangers
- vs Aberdeen31 Oct · Premiershipwin 65%
- at St Mirren7 Nov · Premiershipwin 58%
- at Motherwell21 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.