River Plate
vs
Racing Club
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: River Plate 1–0 Racing Club
The model makes it 50% River Plate, 28% draw, 22% Racing Club — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: River Plate 1.58, Racing Club 0.88.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to River Plate: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- River Plate are 9th on 16 points from 11 games; Racing Club are 13th on 11 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- River Plate have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.
- Racing Club have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Belgrano Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: River Plate 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Racing Club 0–2 River Plate.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: River Plate vs Racing Club
Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into River Plate vs Racing Club
River Plate
- W1-0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto11 October 2026
- L1-2Huracan19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
- W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
Racing Club
- L0-2Belgrano Cordoba11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto5 October 2026
- W3-1Sarmiento Junin19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Huracan14 September 2026
- L1-2Atletico Tucuman7 September 2026
What these results say
- River Plate scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- River Plate won 4 of these 5 matches.
- River Plate conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Racing Club conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Racing Club scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Racing Club had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | River Plate | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
River Plate
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Racing Club
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Racing Club vs River Plate
Racing Club and River Plate have met 6 times in the records we hold, River Plate has won 4 of them to Racing Club's 2.
The record
River Plate won the last one 2–0 on 12 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| River Plate | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 0–2 River Plate - 24 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 3–2 River Plate - 2 Oct 2025
Copa ArgentinaRacing Club 0–1 River Plate - 15 Dec 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 1–0 River Plate - 29 Jul 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 2–1 Racing Club - 23 Oct 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 1–2 River Plate
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 0.80 | 1.36 |
| River Plate | 0.94 | 1.19 |
Leading scorers: River Plate and Racing Club
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván63
Racing Club
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
River Plate carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.59 for Racing Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for River Plate and 0.88 for Racing Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
River Plate rate 0.94 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Club rate 0.80 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for River Plate against 0.88 for Racing Club. River Plate's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.36 for Racing Club.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
River Plate at home · Racing Club away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: River Plate 30, Racing Club 29.
River Plate score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Racing Club have let in 10 there.
Racing Club score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); River Plate have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
River Plate
- at Boca Juniors1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 23%
- at Aldosivi8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 42%
Racing Club
- vs Aldosivi31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 50%
- at Barracas Central8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.