Crystal Palace
vs
Newcastle
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle
The model makes it 40% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 35% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.80, Newcastle 1.65.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Crystal Palace are 12th on 7 points from 6 games; Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Coventry.
- Last 6 meetings: Newcastle 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crystal Palace at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Crystal Palace
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
Newcastle
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Crystal Palace had three goals or more.
- Newcastle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Crystal Palace
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Newcastle
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Crystal Palace and Newcastle have met 6 times in the records we hold, Newcastle has won 3 of them to Crystal Palace's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Crystal Palace won the last one 2–1 on 12 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle - 4 Jan 2026
Premier LeagueNewcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace - 16 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueNewcastle 5–0 Crystal Palace - 30 Nov 2024
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–1 Newcastle - 24 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 2–0 Newcastle - 21 Oct 2023
Premier LeagueNewcastle 4–0 Crystal Palace
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| Newcastle | 1.10 | 1.17 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Crystal Palace carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.83 for Newcastle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.65 for Newcastle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crystal Palace rate 0.96 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle rate 1.10 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newcastle, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crystal Palace the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.65 for Newcastle. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.17 for Newcastle.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Crystal Palace at home · Newcastle away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Crystal PalaceNewcastle
Crystal Palace are 12th after 6 Premier League matches (between 12th and 20th so far); Newcastle are 11th after 6 (between 3rd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Crystal Palace 6, Newcastle 6.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Newcastle have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Crystal Palace
- at Fulham28 Oct · League Cupwin 28%
- at Tottenham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Newcastle
- vs Everton2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Fulham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- at Brighton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.