Bradford
vs
Peterborough
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Bradford 1–0 Peterborough
The model makes it 49% Bradford, 30% draw, 21% Peterborough — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Bradford 1.40, Peterborough 0.72.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Bradford: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bradford are 2nd on 17 points from 9 games; Peterborough are 20th on 8 points from 9 games — League One.
- Bradford are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Leyton Orient.
- Peterborough have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Leicester.
- Last 6 meetings: Bradford 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Bradford 2–0 Peterborough.
Chance to go through
League Cup Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Bradford53%
- Level after ninety minutes29%
- Peterborough18%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Carabao Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bradford vs Peterborough
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bradford at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bradford vs Peterborough
Bradford
- D0-0Leyton Orient10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Reading3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Luton19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Notts County12 September 2026
- W1-0Mansfield Town5 September 2026
Peterborough
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Milton Keynes Dons12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday5 September 2026
What these results say
- Bradford went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bradford had two goals or fewer.
- Bradford scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bradford vs Peterborough
- 15 August 2026Bradford 2–0 PeterboroughLeague One
- 14 February 2026Bradford 2–0 PeterboroughLeague One
- 23 August 2025Peterborough 1–1 BradfordLeague One
- 9 March 2019Bradford 3–1 PeterboroughLeague One
- 11 December 2018Bradford 8–8 PeterboroughFA Cup
- 1 December 2018Peterborough 2–2 BradfordFA Cup
The two sides
Bradford carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.17 for Peterborough. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Bradford and 0.72 for Peterborough. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bradford rate 0.44 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Peterborough rate 0.50 and 1.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bradford the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bradford against 0.72 for Peterborough. Bradford's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.95 for Peterborough.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bradford at home · Peterborough away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Bradford 9, Peterborough 9.
Bradford score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Peterborough have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bradford
- vs Huddersfield31 Oct · League Onewin 37%
- at Leicester14 Nov · League Onewin 26%
- vs Doncaster21 Nov · League Onewin 43%
Peterborough
- vs Luton31 Oct · League Onewin 32%
- vs Oxford United14 Nov · League Onewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.