Jaguares
vs
Llaneros
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Jaguares 1–0 Llaneros
The model makes it 39% Jaguares, 29% draw, 32% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jaguares 1.35, Llaneros 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Jaguares are 18th on 10 points from 12 games; Llaneros are 12th on 14 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Jaguares have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportes Tolima.
- Llaneros are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Once Caldas.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 March 2026, ended Llaneros 2–0 Jaguares.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jaguares vs Llaneros
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jaguares at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jaguares vs Llaneros
Jaguares
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
Llaneros
- L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
What these results say
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Jaguares
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
Llaneros
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Llaneros
- 9 March 2026Llaneros 2–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 24 April 2024Jaguares 1–1 LlanerosCopa Colombia
- 10 April 2024Llaneros 2–2 JaguaresCopa Colombia
- 30 March 2023Jaguares 1–0 LlanerosCopa Colombia
- 15 March 2023Llaneros 1–1 JaguaresCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Llaneros
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jaguares carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.4 for Llaneros. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Jaguares and 1.15 for Llaneros. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jaguares rate 0.64 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Llaneros rate 0.58 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Llaneros, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jaguares the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Jaguares against 1.15 for Llaneros. Jaguares's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.45 for Llaneros.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jaguares at home · Llaneros away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Jaguares 30, Llaneros 32.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Llaneros have let in 7 there.
Llaneros score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Jaguares have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Jaguares
- at Deportivo Pereira30 Oct · Primera Awin 32%
- at Deportivo Pasto5 Nov · Primera Awin 26%
- vs Bucaramanga8 Nov · Primera Awin 28%
Llaneros
- vs Junior31 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- at Alianza Valledupar9 Nov · Primera Awin 33%
- vs Chico12 Nov · Primera Awin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.