Ratchaburi
vs
Kashiwa Reysol
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Ratchaburi 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol
The model makes it 30% Ratchaburi, 24% draw, 46% Kashiwa Reysol — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ratchaburi 1.56, Kashiwa Reysol 2.02.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Kashiwa Reysol are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ratchaburi are 13th on 0 points from 2 games; Kashiwa Reysol are 11th on 0 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashiwa Reysol have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Kyoto Sanga.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ratchaburi vs Kashiwa Reysol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashiwa Reysol at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ratchaburi vs Kashiwa Reysol
Ratchaburi
- L0-1away to Kyoto Sanga13 October 2026
- L4-6SHANGHAI SIPG15 September 2026
Kashiwa Reysol
- L1-2away to Jeonbuk Motors16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Ratchaburi carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.58 for Kashiwa Reysol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Ratchaburi and 2.02 for Kashiwa Reysol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ratchaburi rate 0.66 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kashiwa Reysol rate 0.77 and 1.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashiwa Reysol the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Ratchaburi against 2.02 for Kashiwa Reysol. Ratchaburi's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.33 for Kashiwa Reysol.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ratchaburi
- at Vissel Kobe3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
- vs Johor Darul Takzim FC24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 35%
- at Beijing Guoan1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
- vs Gamba Osaka9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 31%
- at Kashima16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 10%
Kashiwa Reysol
- vs Daejeon Citizen3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 48%
- at Newcastle Jets24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 63%
- vs Buriram United10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.