Ceara
vs
Goias
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ceara 1–0 Goias
The model makes it 58% Ceara, 25% draw, 17% Goias — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Ceara 1.91, Goias 0.82.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Ceara: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ceara are 15th on 42 points from 33 games; Goias are 9th on 48 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Ceara have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Botafogo SP.
- Goias have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Operario-PR.
- Last 6 meetings: Goias 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended Goias 2–0 Ceara.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ceara vs Goias
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ceara vs Goias
Ceara
- L0-1away to Botafogo SP13 October 2026
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
- W2-1Novorizontino18 September 2026
Goias
- W2-0away to Operario-PR11 October 2026
- W2-1Athletic Club MG6 October 2026
- L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Goianiense26 September 2026
- W2-1Avai20 September 2026
What these results say
- Ceara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Goias conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ceara vs Goias
- 4 July 2026Goias 2–0 CearaSerie B
- 13 August 2024Goias 2–1 CearaSerie B
- 20 April 2024Ceara 1–1 GoiasSerie B
- 5 October 2022Ceara 1–1 GoiasSerie A
- 12 June 2022Goias 1–1 CearaSerie A
- 21 January 2021Goias 0–4 CearaSerie A
Leading scorers: Ceara and Goias
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ceara carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.32 for Goias. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Ceara and 0.82 for Goias. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ceara rate 0.73 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Goias rate 0.56 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Goias, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ceara the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Ceara against 0.82 for Goias. Ceara's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.61 for Goias.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ceara at home · Goias away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ceara 33, Goias 33.
Ceara score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Goias have let in 9 there.
Goias score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Ceara have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ceara
- at Athletic Club MG2 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs America Mineiro8 Nov · Serie Bwin 71%
- at CRB14 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Goias
- vs CRB2 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
- vs Ponte Preta8 Nov · Serie Bwin 73%
- at Sport Recife14 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.