Chicago Fire
vs
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Chicago Fire 2–1 Orlando City SC
The model makes it 52% Chicago Fire, 22% draw, 26% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 2.53, Orlando City SC 1.68.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Chicago Fire are 4th on 48 points from 29 games; Orlando City SC are 7th on 38 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Philadelphia Union.
- Orlando City SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Toronto FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Chicago Fire 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 August 2026, ended Orlando City SC 1–2 Chicago Fire.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
- L1-3Philadelphia Union15 October 2026
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
Orlando City SC
- D3-3away to Toronto FC14 October 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 48 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chicago Fire
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC
- 19 August 2026Orlando City SC 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 23 October 2025Chicago Fire 3–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025Orlando City SC 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2024Orlando City SC 4–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Chicago Fire 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda132
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chicago Fire carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.5 for Orlando City SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.68 for Orlando City SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chicago Fire rate 0.78 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando City SC rate 0.84 and 1.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Chicago Fire against 1.68 for Orlando City SC. Chicago Fire's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.77 for Orlando City SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chicago Fire at home · Orlando City SC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Chicago Fire 27, Orlando City SC 27.
Chicago Fire score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 8 there.
Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Chicago Fire
- at Colorado Rapids1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- vs Columbus Crew7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 48%
Orlando City SC
- at Charlotte31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- vs New England Revolution7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.