Viking
vs
Tromso
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Viking 2–1 Tromso
The model makes it 62% Viking, 21% draw, 17% Tromso — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Viking 2.38, Tromso 1.03.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Viking are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Viking are top on 53 points from 22 games; Tromso are 3rd on 39 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Viking are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Brann.
- Tromso have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fredrikstad.
- Last 6 meetings: Viking 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended Tromso 1–1 Viking.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Viking vs Tromso
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 62% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Viking vs Tromso
Viking
- W2-0away to Brann9 October 2026
- W3-0Lillestrom20 September 2026
- W8-1Kristiansund BK13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sandefjord4 September 2026
- W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
Tromso
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026
- W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
- L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
What these results say
- Viking went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Viking scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Viking won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | +36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | +11 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Viking
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 49% today
Tromso
Chance to finish in the top four · 68% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Viking vs Tromso
- 20 February 2026Tromso 1–1 VikingFriendlies Clubs
- 19 October 2025Tromso 1–3 VikingEliteserien
- 27 April 2025Viking 4–4 TromsoEliteserien
- 1 September 2024Tromso 2–2 VikingEliteserien
- 5 May 2024Viking 2–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 24 February 2024Tromso 0–1 VikingFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Viking and Tromso
Viking
GoalsAssists
- P. Christiansen126
- S. Kvia-Egeskog82
- H. Heggheim63
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Viking carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.66 for Tromso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Viking and 1.03 for Tromso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viking rate 1.09 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tromso rate 0.83 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viking a 49% chance of the title and Tromso 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Viking against 1.03 for Tromso. Viking's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.22 for Tromso.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Viking at home · Tromso away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Viking 22, Tromso 22.
Viking score most often in the 0–15 minute window (14 goals); Tromso have let in 3 there.
Tromso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Viking have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Viking
- at Bodo/Glimt30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 31%
- vs Sabah FA4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 52%
- vs KFUM Oslo8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 69%
Tromso
- at Valerenga1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 42%
- vs Bodo/Glimt8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 28%
- vs Viking21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%
- at Sandefjord29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.