Deportes Tolima
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto
The model makes it 53% Deportes Tolima, 28% draw, 19% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Deportes Tolima 1.56, Deportivo Pasto 0.71.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Deportes Tolima: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportes Tolima are 8th on 20 points from 14 games; Deportivo Pasto are 19th on 9 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Deportes Tolima have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Jaguares.
- Deportivo Pasto have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Fortaleza FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportes Tolima 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Deportivo Pasto 0–2 Deportes Tolima.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
- L2-3away to Jaguares11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
Deportivo Pasto
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Pasto
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
- 13 May 2026Deportivo Pasto 0–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 9 May 2026Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 11 April 2026Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 12 July 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 28 January 2025Deportes Tolima 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 3 October 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes TolimaCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportes Tolima carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.33 for Deportivo Pasto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.71 for Deportivo Pasto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes Tolima rate 0.66 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pasto rate 0.58 and 1.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Tolima the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Deportes Tolima against 0.71 for Deportivo Pasto. Deportes Tolima's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.63 for Deportivo Pasto.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportes Tolima at home · Deportivo Pasto away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportes Tolima 36, Deportivo Pasto 33.
Deportes Tolima score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Pasto have let in 6 there.
Deportivo Pasto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Deportes Tolima have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Deportes Tolima
- at Deportivo Pereira3 Nov · Primera Awin 42%
- vs Millonarios7 Nov · Primera Awin 39%
- at Deportivo Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 23%
Deportivo Pasto
- at Bucaramanga31 Oct · Primera Awin 16%
- vs Jaguares5 Nov · Primera Awin 47%
- at Santa Fe10 Nov · Primera Awin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.