Universidad de Chile
vs
Everton de Vina
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad de Chile 2–0 Everton de Vina
The model makes it 55% Universidad de Chile, 25% draw, 20% Everton de Vina — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.95, Everton de Vina 0.97.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Universidad de Chile: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universidad de Chile are 2nd on 45 points from 24 games; Everton de Vina are 4th on 39 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Universidad de Chile are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-0 win at home to Nublense.
- Everton de Vina have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportes La Serena.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad de Chile 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 September 2026, ended Universidad de Chile 1–1 Everton de Vina.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad de Chile at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
Universidad de Chile
- W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
- W4-2Coquimbo Unido6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad de Concepcion30 August 2026
- L1-2Colo Colo23 August 2026
Everton de Vina
- W3-2Deportes La Serena11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes Limache29 August 2026
- W3-1Universidad de Concepcion24 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Chile scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.
- Everton de Vina won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton de Vina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton de Vina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 45 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universidad de Chile
Chance to win the league · 4% today
Everton de Vina
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
- 27 September 2026Universidad de Chile 1–1 Everton de VinaCopa Chile
- 27 September 2026Everton de Vina 0–1 Universidad de ChileCopa Chile
- 18 April 2026Everton de Vina 0–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 5 November 2025Universidad de Chile 2–0 Everton de VinaPrimera División
- 27 March 2025Everton de Vina 2–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 10 November 2024Universidad de Chile 1–1 Everton de VinaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina
Universidad de Chile
GoalsAssists
- E. Vargas93
- A. Arce63
Everton de Vina
GoalsAssists
- A. Medina123
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universidad de Chile carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.51 for Everton de Vina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.97 for Everton de Vina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad de Chile rate 0.84 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Everton de Vina rate 0.71 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad de Chile a 3.5% chance of the title and Everton de Vina 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad de Chile the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Universidad de Chile against 0.97 for Everton de Vina. Universidad de Chile's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.39 for Everton de Vina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad de Chile at home · Everton de Vina away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad de Chile 24, Everton de Vina 23.
Universidad de Chile score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Everton de Vina have let in 1 there.
Everton de Vina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Universidad de Chile have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universidad de Chile
- at Universidad Catolica1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Cobresal8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 68%
- at O'Higgins22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- at Concepción29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Union La Calera6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 68%
Everton de Vina
- at Cobresal1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Concepción8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 44%
- at Coquimbo Unido22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 29%
- vs O'Higgins29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 54%
- at Palestino6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.