America Mineiro
vs
Cuiaba
Serie B prediction
Our model says: America Mineiro 0–1 Cuiaba
The model makes it 25% America Mineiro, 31% draw, 44% Cuiaba — fair odds of 4.00, 3.23 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: America Mineiro 0.85, Cuiaba 1.31.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Cuiaba are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- America Mineiro are 19th on 17 points from 33 games; Cuiaba are 11th on 47 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- America Mineiro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Criciuma.
- Cuiaba have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Avai.
- Last 6 meetings: Cuiaba 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 July 2026, ended Cuiaba 1–0 America Mineiro.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cuiaba at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
America Mineiro
- L0-1away to Criciuma12 October 2026
- L0-1Fortaleza EC7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Goianiense3 October 2026
- L0-1Juventude28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vila Nova18 September 2026
Cuiaba
- L0-1Avai11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
What these results say
- America Mineiro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- America Mineiro failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- America Mineiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 17 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
- 2 July 2026Cuiaba 1–0 America MineiroSerie B
- 16 November 2025America Mineiro 1–1 CuiabaSerie B
- 24 July 2025Cuiaba 3–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 15 September 2023Cuiaba 2–2 America MineiroSerie A
- 7 May 2023America Mineiro 1–2 CuiabaSerie A
- 29 September 2022Cuiaba 2–1 America MineiroSerie A
Leading scorers: America Mineiro and Cuiaba
America Mineiro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
America Mineiro carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.42 for Cuiaba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for America Mineiro and 1.31 for Cuiaba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
America Mineiro rate 0.40 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cuiaba rate 0.54 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cuiaba the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for America Mineiro against 1.31 for Cuiaba. America Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.31 for Cuiaba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
America Mineiro at home · Cuiaba away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: America Mineiro 33, Cuiaba 33.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); America Mineiro have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
America Mineiro
- at Londrina1 Nov · Serie Bwin 18%
- at Ceara8 Nov · Serie Bwin 10%
- vs Avai14 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Cuiaba
- vs São Bernardo1 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
- vs Juventude7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Atletico Goianiense14 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.