Union St. Gilloise
vs
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle Brugge
The model makes it 68% Union St. Gilloise, 19% draw, 13% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.53, Cercle Brugge 0.84.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Union St. Gilloise are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Union St. Gilloise are 4th on 20 points from 8 games; Cercle Brugge are bottom on 3 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to OH Leuven.
- Cercle Brugge have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Anderlecht.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 December 2025, ended Cercle Brugge 1–1 Union St. Gilloise.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 68% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
Union St. Gilloise
- D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
Cercle Brugge
- L1-2Anderlecht10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Charleroi19 September 2026
- D1-1away to OH Leuven12 September 2026
- L0-3Gent6 September 2026
- L0-1Lommel United29 August 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cercle Brugge did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cercle Brugge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 20 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Union St. Gilloise
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 33% today
Cercle Brugge
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
- 26 December 2025Cercle Brugge 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 22 November 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 8 December 2024Cercle Brugge 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 27 October 2024Union St. Gilloise 1–3 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 19 May 2024Cercle Brugge 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 7 April 2024Union St. Gilloise 2–3 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge
Union St. Gilloise
GoalsAssists
- R. Florucz40
- R. Mofokeng31
Cercle Brugge
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 7.19 against 6.75 for Cercle Brugge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.84 for Cercle Brugge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union St. Gilloise rate 1.23 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cercle Brugge rate 1.03 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance of the title and Cercle Brugge 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.84 for Cercle Brugge. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.27 for Cercle Brugge.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union St. Gilloise at home · Cercle Brugge away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 8, Cercle Brugge 8.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Cercle Brugge have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Union St. Gilloise
- at SK Beveren31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 65%
- at Celta Vigo5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- vs Genk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 60%
Cercle Brugge
- vs Antwerp1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 53%
- at RAAL La Louvière7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs KVC Westerlo20 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 43%
- vs KV Mechelen28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 53%
- at SK Beveren12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.