CSKA Moscow
vs
Spartak Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: CSKA Moscow 1–0 Spartak Moscow
The model makes it 40% CSKA Moscow, 28% draw, 32% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.47, Spartak Moscow 1.26.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CSKA Moscow are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; Spartak Moscow are 5th on 20 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- CSKA Moscow are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Rodina Moskva.
- Spartak Moscow are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Krylia Sovetov.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Moscow 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 May 2026, ended Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA Moscow.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
- W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
Spartak Moscow
- D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CSKA Moscow
Chance to finish in the top four · 54% today
Spartak Moscow
Chance to finish in the top four · 68% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
- 6 May 2026Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 22 November 2025Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 5 October 2025CSKA Moscow 3–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 26 April 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 2 November 2024CSKA Moscow 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 25 April 2024CSKA Moscow 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov61
- I. Oleynikov34
- L. Gondou31
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde40
- M. Daku31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA Moscow carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.43 for Spartak Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.26 for Spartak Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Moscow rate 0.63 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Moscow rate 0.65 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Moscow a 7.1% chance of the title and Spartak Moscow 10.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for CSKA Moscow against 1.26 for Spartak Moscow. CSKA Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.51 for Spartak Moscow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CSKA Moscow at home · Spartak Moscow away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: CSKA Moscow 10, Spartak Moscow 10.
Spartak Moscow score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); CSKA Moscow have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
CSKA Moscow
- at FC Orenburg1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at FC Krasnodar7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Akhmat21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- vs Zenit28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Spartak Moscow
- at Lokomotiv1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Akron8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 63%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Fakel30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.