Jagiellonia
vs
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 1–0 Wisla Plock
The model makes it 52% Jagiellonia, 26% draw, 22% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.78, Wisla Plock 0.97.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Jagiellonia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Jagiellonia are 10th on 12 points from 9 games; Wisla Plock are 12th on 11 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Wisla Plock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Last 6 meetings: Wisla Plock 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Jagiellonia 1–2 Wisla Plock.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
Wisla Plock
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Jagiellonia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Wisla Plock
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
- 21 March 2026Jagiellonia 1–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 19 September 2025Wisla Plock 0–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 21 April 2023Wisla Plock 2–4 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 14 January 2023Wisla Plock 3–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 October 2022Jagiellonia 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 13 March 2022Jagiellonia 0–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
The two sides
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.48 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Jagiellonia and 0.97 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.84 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.60 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jagiellonia a 0.3% chance of the title and Wisla Plock 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 0.97 for Wisla Plock. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.28 for Wisla Plock.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jagiellonia at home · Wisla Plock away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
JagielloniaWisla Plock
Jagiellonia are 10th after 9 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Wisla Plock are 11th after 9 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Jagiellonia 9, Wisla Plock 9.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Wisla Plock have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Jagiellonia
- at Lechia Gdansk28 Oct · Cupwin 36%
- at Wieczysta Kraków31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Levski Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
Wisla Plock
- at Puszcza Niepołomice28 Oct · Cupwin 39%
- vs Piast Gliwice31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Motor Lublin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 26%
- vs Legia Warszawa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- at Gornik Zabrze28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.