Yverdon Sport
vs
SC Kriens
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Yverdon Sport 1–0 SC Kriens
The model makes it 48% Yverdon Sport, 27% draw, 25% SC Kriens — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Yverdon Sport 1.62, SC Kriens 1.00.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Yverdon Sport are 2nd on 19 points from 10 games; SC Kriens are 4th on 15 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Yverdon Sport have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Étoile Carouge.
- SC Kriens are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC WIL 1900.
- Last 6 meetings: Yverdon Sport 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended SC Kriens 0–2 Yverdon Sport.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yverdon Sport at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens
Yverdon Sport
- W2-0away to Étoile Carouge9 October 2026
- D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rapperswil11 September 2026
- W4-1Stade Nyonnais6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC1 September 2026
SC Kriens
- D1-1FC WIL 19009 October 2026
- W4-1Étoile Carouge18 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Aarau12 September 2026
- L0-2Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapperswil1 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Kriens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Yverdon Sport
Chance to finish in the top four · 92% today
SC Kriens
Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today
From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens
- 7 August 2026SC Kriens 0–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 14 May 2022Yverdon Sport 3–2 SC KriensChallenge League
- 5 February 2022SC Kriens 0–3 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 17 December 2021Yverdon Sport 2–0 SC KriensChallenge League
- 22 September 2021SC Kriens 0–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 18 November 2017SC Kriens 2–1 Yverdon Sport1. Liga Promotion
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Yverdon Sport carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.19 for SC Kriens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.00 for SC Kriens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Yverdon Sport rate 0.54 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Kriens rate 0.49 and 1.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Yverdon Sport a 12.1% chance of the title and SC Kriens 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Yverdon Sport the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Yverdon Sport against 1.00 for SC Kriens. Yverdon Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.84 for SC Kriens.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Yverdon Sport at home · SC Kriens away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Yverdon Sport 10, SC Kriens 10.
Yverdon Sport score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); SC Kriens have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Yverdon Sport
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC8 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- vs FC Winterthur20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- at FC WIL 190028 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 42%
- at FC Aarau5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
SC Kriens
- at Étoile Carouge30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 38%
- vs Rapperswil6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 53%
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 21%
- vs FC Aarau27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 36%
- at Stade Nyonnais5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.