Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
vs
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev
The model makes it 50% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, 25% draw, 25% FC Dnepr Mogilev — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1.88, FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.20.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are 12th on 23 points from 24 games; FC Dnepr Mogilev are bottom on 16 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dinamo Brest.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dinamo Minsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 June 2026, ended FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026
- L1-5away to ML Vitebsk18 September 2026
- D0-0Baranovichi12 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.7 September 2026
- L2-4Torpedo Zhodino30 August 2026
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Dinamo Brest20 September 2026
- D1-1ML Vitebsk13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Baranovichi6 September 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 42 | -18 | 23 |
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 24 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 24% today
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 92% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 14 June 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 7 September 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–6 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
- 11 August 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 29 March 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 1 October 2023FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1. Division
- 28 May 2023Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk carry a model rating of 6.05 against 5.98 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and 1.20 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk rate 0.48 in attack and 2.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Dnepr Mogilev rate 0.42 and 2.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal Dzerzhinsk the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk against 1.20 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.41 for FC Dnepr Mogilev.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at home · FC Dnepr Mogilev away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 24, FC Dnepr Mogilev 24.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); FC Dnepr Mogilev have let in 4 there.
FC Dnepr Mogilev score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- vs Bate Borisov31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- at FC Gomel7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Neman21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at FC Vitebsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- vs FC Gomel31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Neman7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- vs FC Vitebsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at FC Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.