Kashima
vs
Pohang Steelers
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Kashima 2–0 Pohang Steelers
The model makes it 64% Kashima, 23% draw, 13% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Kashima 2.03, Pohang Steelers 0.67.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Kashima are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Kashima are top on 6 points from 2 games; Pohang Steelers are 15th on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashima have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vissel Kobe.
- Pohang Steelers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Incheon United.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kashima vs Pohang Steelers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashima at 64% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kashima vs Pohang Steelers
Kashima
- W1-0away to Công An Nhân Dân13 October 2026
- W7-1Newcastle Jets15 September 2026
Pohang Steelers
- L0-2Johor Darul Takzim FC13 October 2026
- L1-3away to Beijing Guoan15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 15 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kashima and Pohang Steelers
Kashima
GoalsAssists
- A. Čavrić30
- H. Tokuda21
Pohang Steelers
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kashima carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.35 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Kashima and 0.67 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kashima rate 0.78 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.53 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashima the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Kashima against 0.67 for Pohang Steelers. Kashima's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.47 for Pohang Steelers.
Season stats
Kashima at home · Pohang Steelers away
League matches only, this season — Kashima in the J1 League, Pohang Steelers in the K League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Kashima 20 in the J1 League, Pohang Steelers 31 in the K League 1.
Kashima score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Pohang Steelers have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kashima
- at Buriram United4 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 46%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 52%
- at Port FC2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 57%
- at Daejeon Citizen9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Ratchaburi16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 74%
Pohang Steelers
- vs Gamba Osaka4 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- at Kyoto Sanga24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.