Sepahan FC
vs
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Sepahan FC 2–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak
The model makes it 72% Sepahan FC, 17% draw, 11% Mes Shahr-e Babak — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Sepahan FC 2.92, Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.90.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sepahan FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sepahan FC are 4th on 16 points from 8 games; Mes Shahr-e Babak are 17th on 5 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Sepahan FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to ZOB Ahan.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Foolad FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sepahan FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sepahan FC at 72% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sepahan FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
Sepahan FC
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan13 October 2026
- W6-1Fajr Sepasi8 October 2026
- W1-0Esteghlal Khuzestan6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sanat Naft2 September 2026
- W2-0Gol Gohar28 August 2026
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- L1-2away to Foolad FC8 October 2026
- D1-1Nassaji Mazandaran13 September 2026
- L1-2Malavan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fajr Sepasi3 September 2026
- D0-0Sanat Naft29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sepahan FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sepahan FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 17 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sepahan FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 72% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Sepahan FC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.18 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.92 goals for Sepahan FC and 0.90 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sepahan FC rate 0.85 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mes Shahr-e Babak rate 0.55 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sepahan FC a 17.5% chance of the title and Mes Shahr-e Babak 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepahan FC the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Sepahan FC against 0.90 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Sepahan FC's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.11 for Mes Shahr-e Babak.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sepahan FC at home · Mes Shahr-e Babak away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Sepahan FC 8, Mes Shahr-e Babak 8.
Mes Shahr-e Babak score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Sepahan FC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sepahan FC
- at Kheybar Khorramabad30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 43%
- vs Malavan6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 67%
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- vs Paykan31 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Aluminium Arak6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.