Vancouver Whitecaps
vs
San Diego
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 San Diego
The model makes it 60% Vancouver Whitecaps, 21% draw, 19% San Diego — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 2.42, San Diego 1.15.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Vancouver Whitecaps: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Vancouver Whitecaps are top on 52 points from 29 games; San Diego are 12th on 33 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Vancouver Whitecaps are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to St. Louis City.
- San Diego have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Houston Dynamo.
- Last 4 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended San Diego 2–4 Vancouver Whitecaps.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D0-0away to St. Louis City15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
San Diego
- D3-3Houston Dynamo15 October 2026
- L1-4away to New York Red Bulls10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
What these results say
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 52 |
| 12 | San Diego | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vancouver Whitecaps
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 64% today
San Diego
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego
- 24 May 2026San Diego 2–4 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 30 November 2025San Diego 1–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2025San Diego 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–5 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and San Diego
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
San Diego
GoalsAssists
- M. Ingvartsen123
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vancouver Whitecaps carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.45 for San Diego. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.15 for San Diego. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.81 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Diego rate 0.73 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 63.7% chance of the title and San Diego 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps against 1.15 for San Diego. Vancouver Whitecaps's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.63 for San Diego.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vancouver Whitecaps at home · San Diego away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Vancouver Whitecaps 29, San Diego 28.
San Diego score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Vancouver Whitecaps have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Vancouver Whitecaps
- vs Seattle Sounders1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 53%
- at CF Montreal7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 54%
San Diego
- at St. Louis City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs Sporting Kansas City8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.