Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al-Gharafa
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0 Al-Gharafa
The model makes it 83% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 11% draw, 6% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 1.20, 9.09 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.59, Al-Gharafa 0.67.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Ahli Jeddah are 5th on 4 points from 2 games; Al-Gharafa are 13th on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Al-Fateh.
- Al-Gharafa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al Wakrah.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 83% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W3-1away to Al-Wasl FC12 October 2026
- D1-1Pakhtakor14 September 2026
Al-Gharafa
- L1-2Esteghlal FC12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Gharafa
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- Trincão11
- Feras Al Brikan10
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- A. Hassan10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.25 for Al-Gharafa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.59 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.67 for Al-Gharafa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.13 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Gharafa rate 0.54 and 1.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 83%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.59 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.67 for Al-Gharafa. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.79 for Al-Gharafa.
Season stats
Al-Ahli Jeddah at home · Al-Gharafa away
League matches only, this season — Al-Ahli Jeddah in the Pro League, Al-Gharafa in the Stars League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al-Ahli Jeddah 8 in the Pro League, Al-Gharafa 5 in the Stars League.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Gharafa have let in 2 there.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al-Ahli Jeddah have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- at Al Shabab30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 59%
- at Al Sadd2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 48%
Al-Gharafa
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
- at Qatar SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Duhail SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.