CSKA Sofia
vs
Ludogorets
First League prediction
Our model says: CSKA Sofia 0–1 Ludogorets
The model makes it 34% CSKA Sofia, 30% draw, 36% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.20, Ludogorets 1.25.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CSKA Sofia are 2nd on 27 points from 11 games; Ludogorets are 3rd on 26 points from 10 games — First League.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to CSKA 1948.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Arda Kardzhali.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2026, ended Ludogorets 1–0 CSKA Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
Ludogorets
- W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CSKA Sofia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 10% today
Ludogorets
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 22% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
- 25 May 2026Ludogorets 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 3 May 2026CSKA Sofia 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 29 April 2026CSKA Sofia 0–0 LudogoretsCup
- 21 April 2026Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA SofiaCup
- 14 March 2026Ludogorets 3–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 5 October 2025CSKA Sofia 0–0 LudogoretsFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA Sofia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.74 for Ludogorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.25 for Ludogorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Sofia rate 0.83 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ludogorets rate 0.84 and 1.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Sofia a 9.5% chance of the title and Ludogorets 21.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.25 for Ludogorets. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.05 for Ludogorets.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CSKA Sofia at home · Ludogorets away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CSKA SofiaLudogorets
CSKA Sofia are 2nd after 11 First League matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Ludogorets are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: CSKA Sofia 11, Ludogorets 10.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Ludogorets have let in 2 there.
Ludogorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
CSKA Sofia
- at Levski Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 23%
- at Panathinaikos5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 13%
- vs Slavia Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 56%
Ludogorets
- vs CSKA 194831 Oct · First Leaguewin 51%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 Nov · First Leaguewin 55%
- vs Dunav Ruse21 Nov · First Leaguewin 71%
- at Botev Vratsa28 Nov · First Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.