Castellón
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Castellón 1–0 Sporting Gijon
The model makes it 49% Castellón, 28% draw, 23% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Castellón 1.59, Sporting Gijon 0.91.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Castellón: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Castellón are 3rd on 20 points from 9 games; Sporting Gijon are 6th on 16 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Castellón have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Andorra.
- Sporting Gijon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Cadiz.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Sporting Gijon 4–1 Castellón.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
Castellón
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
- D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
Sporting Gijon
- W1-0away to Cadiz11 October 2026
- W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
What these results say
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Castellón
Chance to finish in the top four · 63% today
Sporting Gijon
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
- 15 March 2026Sporting Gijon 4–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 5 October 2025Castellón 3–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 5 May 2025Castellón 4–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 14 October 2024Sporting Gijon 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 24 January 2021Castellón 2–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 November 2020Sporting Gijon 1–0 CastellónSegunda División
Leading scorers: Castellón and Sporting Gijon
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Ousmane Camara41
- Israel Suero32
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Castellón carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.57 for Sporting Gijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Castellón and 0.91 for Sporting Gijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Castellón rate 0.83 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Gijon rate 0.70 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Castellón a 18.2% chance of the title and Sporting Gijon 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Castellón against 0.91 for Sporting Gijon. Castellón's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.24 for Sporting Gijon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Castellón at home · Sporting Gijon away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CastellónSporting Gijon
Castellón are 2nd after 9 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Sporting Gijon are 6th after 9 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Castellón 9, Sporting Gijon 9.
Castellón score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Sporting Gijon have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Castellón
- at Burgos1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Eibar8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Valladolid15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- vs Eldense22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
Sporting Gijon
- at AD Ceuta FC1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- vs Valladolid8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Real Sociedad II15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Las Palmas22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.