SC Freiburg
vs
Bayern München
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern München
The model makes it 26% SC Freiburg, 22% draw, 52% Bayern München — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.51, Bayern München 2.35.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Bayern München are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SC Freiburg are top on 13 points from 5 games; Bayern München are 3rd on 11 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Schalke 04.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Augsburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayern München 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Bayern München
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
Bayern München
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026
- W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
- W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bayern München scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bayern München had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München
- 4 April 2026SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 22 November 2025Bayern München 6–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 25 January 2025SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 1 September 2024Bayern München 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 1 March 2024SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 8 October 2023Bayern Munich 3–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Bayern München
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki40
- I. Matanović31
- M. Eggestein30
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise41
- H. Kane33
- I. Saibari22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Freiburg carry a model rating of 7.02 against 7.33 for Bayern München. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for SC Freiburg and 2.35 for Bayern München. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Freiburg rate 1.21 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayern München rate 1.76 and 0.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SC Freiburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 2.35 for Bayern München. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.68 for Bayern München.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Freiburg at home · Bayern München away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SC FreiburgBayern München
SC Freiburg are 1st after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Bayern München are 2nd after 5 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Freiburg 5, Bayern München 5.
Bayern München score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); SC Freiburg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Freiburg
- vs VfL Wolfsburg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 63%
- at FC Augsburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Trabzonspor5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
Bayern München
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 87%
- vs Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · Bundesligawin 49%
- at Atletico Madrid3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at FSV Mainz 057 Nov · Bundesligawin 64%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.