Ferencvarosi TC
vs
MTK Budapest
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 MTK Budapest
The model makes it 60% Ferencvarosi TC, 22% draw, 18% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 2.22, MTK Budapest 0.99.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Ferencvarosi TC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ferencvarosi TC are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; MTK Budapest are 9th on 9 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Debreceni VSC.
- MTK Budapest are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Paks.
- Last 6 meetings: Ferencvarosi TC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 February 2026, ended MTK Budapest 1–3 Ferencvarosi TC.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest
Ferencvarosi TC
- D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza20 September 2026
- D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Gyori ETO FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puskas Academy30 August 2026
MTK Budapest
- L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC20 September 2026
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza22 August 2026
What these results say
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MTK Budapest had three goals or more.
- MTK Budapest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ferencvarosi TC
Chance to win the league · 35% today
MTK Budapest
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest
- 23 February 2026MTK Budapest 1–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 1 November 2025Ferencvarosi TC 4–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 26 July 2025MTK Budapest 1–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 27 April 2025MTK Budapest 2–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 23 April 2025Ferencvarosi TC 3–1 MTK BudapestMagyar Kupa
- 2 February 2025Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest
Ferencvarosi TC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek51
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
- I. Bognár22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ferencvarosi TC carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.37 for MTK Budapest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 0.99 for MTK Budapest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.75 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MTK Budapest rate 0.67 and 1.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ferencvarosi TC a 34.7% chance of the title and MTK Budapest 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 0.99 for MTK Budapest. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.77 for MTK Budapest.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ferencvarosi TC at home · MTK Budapest away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Ferencvarosi TC 8, MTK Budapest 9.
Ferencvarosi TC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); MTK Budapest have let in 2 there.
MTK Budapest score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ferencvarosi TC
- vs Paks31 Oct · NB Iwin 52%
- at AC Milan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 13%
MTK Budapest
- at Zalaegerszegi TE31 Oct · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Budapest Honved7 Nov · NB Iwin 42%
- at Puskas Academy21 Nov · NB Iwin 25%
- vs Ujpest28 Nov · NB Iwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.