Al-Nassr
vs
Al Kholood
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Kholood
The model makes it 72% Al-Nassr, 17% draw, 11% Al Kholood — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 3.02, Al Kholood 0.96.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Nassr are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games; Al Kholood are 8th on 12 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Diriyah.
- Al Kholood have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Last 4 meetings: Al-Nassr 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Nassr.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 72% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
Al-Nassr
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon28 August 2026
Al Kholood
- L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Nassr had three goals or more.
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Kholood had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 8 | Al Kholood | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
- 30 January 2026Al Kholood 0–3 Al-NassrPro League
- 14 September 2025Al-Nassr 2–0 Al KholoodPro League
- 14 March 2025Al-Nassr 3–1 Al KholoodPro League
- 25 October 2024Al Kholood 3–3 Al-NassrPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Kholood
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo40
- Ângelo32
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- Iker Kortajarena41
- J. Domingues32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Nassr carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.42 for Al Kholood. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.02 goals for Al-Nassr and 0.96 for Al Kholood. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Nassr rate 1.16 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Kholood rate 0.67 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Nassr a 18.4% chance of the title and Al Kholood 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.02 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 0.96 for Al Kholood. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.59 for Al Kholood.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Nassr at home · Al Kholood away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Nassr 8, Al Kholood 8.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Al Kholood have let in 2 there.
Al Kholood score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al-Nassr have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al-Nassr
- at Pakhtakor2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
Al Kholood
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 41%
- at NEOM20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.