FC Midtjylland
vs
Odense
DBU Pokalen prediction
Our model says: FC Midtjylland 2–0 Odense
The model makes it 65% FC Midtjylland, 22% draw, 13% Odense — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.09, Odense 0.67.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Midtjylland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Midtjylland are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; Odense are 9th on 10 points from 10 games — Superliga.
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Copenhagen.
- Odense are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to FC Nordsjaelland.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Midtjylland 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Odense 1–1 FC Midtjylland.
Chance to go through
DBU Pokalen Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- FC Midtjylland70%
- Level after ninety minutes20%
- Odense10%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DBU Pokalen predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Midtjylland vs Odense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 65% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Odense
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
Odense
- D0-0away to FC Nordsjaelland9 October 2026
- D1-1FC Midtjylland19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Randers FC13 September 2026
- L0-5FC Copenhagen6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Odense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Odense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 9 | Odense | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Odense
- 19 September 2026Odense 1–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 17 July 2026FC Midtjylland 4–1 OdenseFriendlies Clubs
- 15 February 2026Odense 1–4 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 20 July 2025FC Midtjylland 3–3 OdenseSuperliga
- 23 October 2023Odense 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 24 September 2023FC Midtjylland 2–1 OdenseSuperliga
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Odense
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- F. Etim53
- S. Iheanacho31
Odense
No player in Superliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Midtjylland carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.46 for Odense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for FC Midtjylland and 0.67 for Odense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Midtjylland rate 0.99 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Odense rate 0.59 and 1.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 0.67 for Odense. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.3 for Odense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Midtjylland at home · Odense away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: FC Midtjylland 10, Odense 10.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Odense have let in 2 there.
Odense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); FC Midtjylland have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Midtjylland
- at FC Nordsjaelland1 Nov · Superligawin 42%
- vs Ajax5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
Odense
- vs Silkeborg1 Nov · Superligawin 39%
- vs Viborg7 Nov · Superligawin 29%
- at Sonderjyske22 Nov · Superligawin 36%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland30 Nov · Superligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.