Al Shamal
vs
Al-Hilal
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al Shamal 0–2 Al-Hilal
The model makes it 14% Al Shamal, 19% draw, 67% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 7.14, 5.26 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Shamal 0.99, Al-Hilal 2.70.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Shamal are 10th on 2 points from 2 games; Al-Hilal are 3rd on 6 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Shamal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Al-Duhail SC.
- Al-Hilal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Al-Ittihad.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shamal vs Al-Hilal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shamal vs Al-Hilal
Al Shamal
- D0-0away to Tractor Sazi12 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026
Al-Hilal
- W2-0away to Al Sadd13 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Gharafa15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Al Shamal carry a model rating of 6.35 against 7.03 for Al-Hilal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Al Shamal and 2.70 for Al-Hilal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shamal rate 0.62 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Hilal rate 1.29 and 0.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Shamal against 2.70 for Al-Hilal. Al Shamal's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.9 for Al-Hilal.
Season stats
Al Shamal at home · Al-Hilal away
League matches only, this season — Al Shamal in the Stars League, Al-Hilal in the Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al Shamal 5 in the Stars League, Al-Hilal 8 in the Pro League.
Al Shamal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al-Hilal have let in 1 there.
Al-Hilal score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Al Shamal have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Shamal
- at Esteghlal FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- at Al Sadd6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 24%
- vs Al-Sailiya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
Al-Hilal
- vs Al-Fateh31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 78%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.