Sport Boys
vs
FC Cajamarca
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sport Boys 2–1 FC Cajamarca
The model makes it 51% Sport Boys, 25% draw, 24% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sport Boys 1.87, FC Cajamarca 1.10.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sport Boys are 10th on 38 points from 28 games; FC Cajamarca are 15th on 28 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sport Boys have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Alianza Atletico.
- FC Cajamarca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to ADT.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Boys at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
- L1-3Alianza Atletico11 October 2026
- D1-1away to FBC Melgar20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Garcilaso13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo5 September 2026
- W1-0Sporting Cristal30 August 2026
FC Cajamarca
- D0-0away to ADT10 October 2026
- L1-2Cusco19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas12 September 2026
- L2-5Cienciano4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Comerciantes Unidos28 August 2026
What these results say
- Sport Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cajamarca had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sport Boys | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 38 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Cajamarca
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca
- 2 May 2026FC Cajamarca 3–2 Sport BoysPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- M. Arrasco75
- B. Palacios73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sport Boys carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.26 for FC Cajamarca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Sport Boys and 1.10 for FC Cajamarca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sport Boys rate 0.53 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cajamarca rate 0.65 and 2.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Boys the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sport Boys against 1.10 for FC Cajamarca. Sport Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.17 for FC Cajamarca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sport Boys at home · FC Cajamarca away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sport Boys 28, FC Cajamarca 28.
Sport Boys score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); FC Cajamarca have let in 10 there.
FC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sport Boys have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sport Boys
- at Universitario28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at Cusco31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs UTC Cajamarca7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Comerciantes Unidos14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
FC Cajamarca
- vs UTC Cajamarca28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 55%
- at Sporting Cristal31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
- vs Alianza Atletico7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Alianza Lima14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 14%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.