Arda Kardzhali
vs
Levski Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Levski Sofia
The model makes it 17% Arda Kardzhali, 25% draw, 58% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 5.88, 4.00 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 0.80, Levski Sofia 1.87.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Levski Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 17 points from 11 games; Levski Sofia are top on 28 points from 10 games — First League.
- Arda Kardzhali are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Ludogorets.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Cherno More Varna.
- Last 6 meetings: Levski Sofia 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 April 2026, ended Levski Sofia 1–0 Arda Kardzhali.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
- L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
Levski Sofia
- W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arda Kardzhali failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arda Kardzhali
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
Levski Sofia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 68% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
- 9 April 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 2 November 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 14 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 26 April 2025Levski Sofia 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 16 March 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 29 September 2024Levski Sofia 2–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
A clear gap in the ratings
Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.83 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.87 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arda Kardzhali rate 0.61 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.90 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arda Kardzhali a 0% chance of the title and Levski Sofia 68.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 1.87 for Levski Sofia. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.95 for Levski Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arda Kardzhali at home · Levski Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Arda KardzhaliLevski Sofia
Arda Kardzhali are 6th after 11 First League matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Levski Sofia are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Arda Kardzhali 11, Levski Sofia 10.
Arda Kardzhali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 1 there.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Arda Kardzhali have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arda Kardzhali
- at Spartak Varna31 Oct · First Leaguewin 39%
- vs Septemvri Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 54%
- at Slavia Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 32%
- vs CSKA 194828 Nov · First Leaguewin 30%
- vs Dunav Ruse5 Dec · First Leaguewin 48%
Levski Sofia
- vs CSKA Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 49%
- vs Jagiellonia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.