Karmiotissa
vs
Apollon Limassol
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Karmiotissa 0–1 Apollon Limassol
The model makes it 25% Karmiotissa, 28% draw, 47% Apollon Limassol — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Karmiotissa 1.00, Apollon Limassol 1.55.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Apollon Limassol are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Karmiotissa are 12th on 3 points from 5 games; Apollon Limassol are 5th on 9 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Karmiotissa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Omonia Nicosia.
- Apollon Limassol are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Krasava Ypsonas.
- Last 6 meetings: Apollon Limassol 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2025, ended Apollon Limassol 3–0 Karmiotissa.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Apollon Limassol at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol
Karmiotissa
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aris20 September 2026
- D1-1Omonia Aradippou12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia 29is Maiou4 September 2026
- L0-3Pafos30 August 2026
Apollon Limassol
- W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026
- D2-2Apoel Nicosia19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia12 September 2026
- W3-1Anorthosis5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Aris29 August 2026
What these results say
- Karmiotissa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol
- 18 January 2025Apollon Limassol 3–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 4 October 2024Karmiotissa 2–0 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 17 August 2024Apollon Limassol 7–1 KarmiotissaFriendlies Clubs
- 29 April 2024Apollon Limassol 0–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 15 March 2024Karmiotissa 0–0 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 22 December 2023Karmiotissa 3–4 Apollon Limassol1. Division
The two sides
Karmiotissa carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.7 for Apollon Limassol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Karmiotissa and 1.55 for Apollon Limassol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karmiotissa rate 0.52 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Apollon Limassol rate 0.87 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apollon Limassol the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Karmiotissa against 1.55 for Apollon Limassol. Karmiotissa's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.18 for Apollon Limassol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Karmiotissa at home · Apollon Limassol away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Karmiotissa 5, Apollon Limassol 5.
Karmiotissa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Apollon Limassol have let in 3 there.
Apollon Limassol score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Karmiotissa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Karmiotissa
- vs Olympiakos30 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at AEK Larnaca7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 10%
- vs AEL22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- at Anorthosis28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Apollon Limassol
- vs Pafos31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 41%
- at Olympiakos7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 58%
- at AEK Larnaca27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.