Regular Season - 5 · 25 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida Botola Pro prediction

Our model says: Kawkab Marrakech 1–0 Difaa EL Jadida

The model makes it 44% Kawkab Marrakech, 27% draw, 29% Difaa EL Jadida — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Kawkab Marrakech 1.56, Difaa EL Jadida 1.16.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,012 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Kawkab Marrakech's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and Difaa EL Jadida's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.

Key facts

  • Kawkab Marrakech are top on 9 points from 4 games; Difaa EL Jadida are 7th on 6 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
  • Kawkab Marrakech are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Widad Témara.
  • Difaa EL Jadida have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Moghreb Tetouan.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech.

More Botola Pro predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kawkab Marrakech win Draw Difaa EL Jadida win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Kawkab Marrakech first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kawkab Marrakech at 44% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida

Kawkab Marrakech

  • W1-0away to Widad Témara18 October 2026
  • W2-1Ittihad Tanger10 October 2026
  • W1-0away to CODM Meknès3 October 2026
  • L2-3Hassania Agadir27 September 2026

Difaa EL Jadida

  • W4-1Moghreb Tetouan17 October 2026
  • W5-2away to Amal Tiznit10 October 2026
  • L0-2Wydad AC3 October 2026
  • L2-6CODM Meknès26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Kawkab Marrakech scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Kawkab Marrakech won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Difaa EL Jadida conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Difaa EL Jadida scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Difaa EL Jadida had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Botola Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Kawkab Marrakech430164+29
7Difaa EL Jadida4202111106

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida

  • 28 June 2026Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Kawkab MarrakechBotola Pro
  • 21 February 2026Kawkab Marrakech 0–0 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
  • 21 August 2025Difaa EL Jadida 2–0 Kawkab MarrakechFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 June 2024Difaa EL Jadida 0–0 Kawkab MarrakechBotola 2
  • 8 December 2023Kawkab Marrakech 1–0 Difaa EL JadidaBotola 2
  • 2 March 2019Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Kawkab MarrakechBotola Pro

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Kawkab Marrakech carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.32 for Difaa EL Jadida. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Kawkab Marrakech and 1.16 for Difaa EL Jadida. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Kawkab Marrakech rate 0.55 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Difaa EL Jadida rate 0.74 and 2.29.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kawkab Marrakech the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kawkab Marrakech against 1.16 for Difaa EL Jadida. Kawkab Marrakech's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/2.29 for Difaa EL Jadida.

Season stats

Kawkab MarrakechDifaa EL Jadida
4Matches4
3W 0D 1LRecord2W 0D 2L
6 1.5 per gameGoals scored11 2.8 per game
4 1.0 per gameGoals conceded11 2.8 per game
2 of 4Clean sheets0 of 4
0 of 4Failed to score1 of 4
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
10 2.5 per gameYellow cards15 3.8 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape4-3-3 1×

Kawkab Marrakech at home · Difaa EL Jadida away

2Played1
1W 0D 1LRecord1W 0D 0L
4–4Goals for – against5–2
0 of 2Clean sheets0 of 1

League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Position by match

Kawkab MarrakechDifaa EL Jadida

151016 Kawkab Marrakech, match 1, 27 September 2026: vs Hassania Agadir 2-3 → 11thKawkab Marrakech, match 2, 3 October 2026: at CODM Meknès 0-1 → 7thKawkab Marrakech, match 3, 10 October 2026: vs Ittihad Tanger 2-1 → 4thKawkab Marrakech, match 4, 18 October 2026: at Widad Témara 0-1 → 1stDifaa EL Jadida, match 1, 26 September 2026: vs CODM Meknès 2-6 → 16thDifaa EL Jadida, match 2, 3 October 2026: vs Wydad AC 0-2 → 16thDifaa EL Jadida, match 3, 10 October 2026: at Amal Tiznit 2-5 → 12thDifaa EL Jadida, match 4, 17 October 2026: vs Moghreb Tetouan 4-1 → 7th 1234 151016 Kawkab Marrakech, match 1, 27 September 2026: vs Hassania Agadir 2-3 → 11thKawkab Marrakech, match 2, 3 October 2026: at CODM Meknès 0-1 → 7thKawkab Marrakech, match 3, 10 October 2026: vs Ittihad Tanger 2-1 → 4thKawkab Marrakech, match 4, 18 October 2026: at Widad Témara 0-1 → 1stDifaa EL Jadida, match 1, 26 September 2026: vs CODM Meknès 2-6 → 16thDifaa EL Jadida, match 2, 3 October 2026: vs Wydad AC 0-2 → 16thDifaa EL Jadida, match 3, 10 October 2026: at Amal Tiznit 2-5 → 12thDifaa EL Jadida, match 4, 17 October 2026: vs Moghreb Tetouan 4-1 → 7th 1234

Kawkab Marrakech are 1st after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Difaa EL Jadida are 7th after 4 (between 7th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Botola Pro matches this season: Kawkab Marrakech 4, Difaa EL Jadida 4.

Kawkab Marrakech scored 102012
Difaa EL Jadida conceded 132302
Difaa EL Jadida scored 202133
Kawkab Marrakech conceded 100021

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Kawkab Marrakech

Difaa EL Jadida

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.