Radomlje
vs
Mura
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Radomlje 2–1 Mura
The model makes it 49% Radomlje, 24% draw, 27% Mura — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Radomlje 2.02, Mura 1.39.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Radomlje are bottom on 6 points from 10 games; Mura are 9th on 10 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Radomlje have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Koper.
- Mura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Last 6 meetings: Radomlje 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 August 2026, ended Mura 1–3 Radomlje.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radomlje vs Mura
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radomlje at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radomlje vs Mura
Radomlje
- D3-3Koper10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Brinje-Grosuplje20 September 2026
- L0-3Maribor13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Nafta4 September 2026
- D0-0Olimpija Ljubljana29 August 2026
Mura
- D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026
- D0-0Celje20 September 2026
- L1-6Aluminij13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maribor6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bravo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Radomlje did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Radomlje conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Radomlje had three goals or more.
- Mura did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mura conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radomlje
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 89% today
Mura
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 81% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Radomlje vs Mura
- 10 August 2026Mura 1–3 Radomlje1. SNL
- 22 May 2026Radomlje 3–2 Mura1. SNL
- 21 March 2026Mura 2–0 Radomlje1. SNL
- 6 December 2025Radomlje 3–1 Mura1. SNL
- 21 September 2025Mura 0–0 Radomlje1. SNL
- 3 May 2025Radomlje 2–0 Mura1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radomlje carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.18 for Mura. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Radomlje and 1.39 for Mura. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radomlje rate 0.61 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mura rate 0.53 and 2.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mura, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radomlje the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Radomlje against 1.39 for Mura. Radomlje's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.04 for Mura.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radomlje at home · Mura away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Radomlje 10, Mura 11.
Mura score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Radomlje have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Radomlje
- at Aluminij31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 24%
- vs Celje7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 25%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 17%
Mura
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 41%
- at Koper7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 15%
- vs Bravo21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 30%
- vs Maribor28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.