Beijing Guoan
vs
Jeonbuk Motors
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Beijing Guoan 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors
The model makes it 41% Beijing Guoan, 28% draw, 31% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 1.48, Jeonbuk Motors 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Beijing Guoan are 3rd on 6 points from 2 games; Jeonbuk Motors are 8th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Qingdao Jonoon.
- Jeonbuk Motors are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Daejeon Citizen.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Beijing Guoan vs Jeonbuk Motors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Jeonbuk Motors
Beijing Guoan
- W1-0away to Buriram United13 October 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
- W2-1Kashiwa Reysol16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Jeonbuk Motors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Beijing Guoan and Jeonbuk Motors
Beijing Guoan
GoalsAssists
- Zhang Xizhe11
Jeonbuk Motors
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Beijing Guoan carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.57 for Jeonbuk Motors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.21 for Jeonbuk Motors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beijing Guoan rate 0.69 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.68 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Beijing Guoan against 1.21 for Jeonbuk Motors. Beijing Guoan's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.21 for Jeonbuk Motors.
Season stats
Beijing Guoan at home · Jeonbuk Motors away
League matches only, this season — Beijing Guoan in the Super League, Jeonbuk Motors in the K League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Beijing Guoan 27 in the Super League, Jeonbuk Motors 31 in the K League 1.
Beijing Guoan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Jeonbuk Motors have let in 8 there.
Jeonbuk Motors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Beijing Guoan have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Beijing Guoan
- at Port FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
- vs Chongqing Tongliang Long8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 60%
- at Daejeon Citizen24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
Jeonbuk Motors
- vs Johor Darul Takzim FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 52%
- at Kashima25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.