Mjallby AIF
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Mjallby AIF 1–2 Hammarby FF
The model makes it 22% Mjallby AIF, 24% draw, 54% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.07, Hammarby FF 1.98.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Hammarby FF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mjallby AIF are 12th on 23 points from 23 games; Hammarby FF are 3rd on 43 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Degerfors IF.
- Hammarby FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Djurgardens IF.
- Last 6 meetings: Mjallby AIF 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended Mjallby AIF 2–1 Hammarby FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF
Mjallby AIF
- D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
Hammarby FF
- L0-1Djurgardens IF11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 21 | +28 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mjallby AIF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Hammarby FF
Chance to finish in the top four · 95% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF
- 14 May 2026Mjallby AIF 2–1 Hammarby FFSvenska Cupen
- 4 April 2026Hammarby FF 3–0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 22 May 2025Hammarby FF 1–2 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 18 April 2025Mjallby AIF 3–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 28 July 2024Hammarby FF 3–0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 15 May 2024Mjallby AIF 3–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström90
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham143
- V. Lind911
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.72 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.98 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.59 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.85 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mjallby AIF a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.98 for Hammarby FF. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.11 for Hammarby FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mjallby AIF at home · Hammarby FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Mjallby AIF 23, Hammarby FF 23.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mjallby AIF
- at Orgryte IS29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 41%
- vs Kalmar FF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
Hammarby FF
- vs Sirius29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- at Malmo FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
- vs IF Elfsborg6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- vs IFK Goteborg23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.