San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Colorado Rapids
The model makes it 46% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 28% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.68, Colorado Rapids 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 47 points from 29 games; Colorado Rapids are 9th on 38 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Real Salt Lake.
- Colorado Rapids are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Minnesota United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Colorado Rapids 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
Colorado Rapids
- D2-2Minnesota United FC15 October 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
- D3-3Seattle Sounders20 September 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
What these results say
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 47 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
San Jose Earthquakes
Chance to finish in the top four · 52% today
Colorado Rapids
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
- 11 October 2026Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2026Colorado Rapids 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesUS Open Cup
- 11 May 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Colorado Rapids 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd152
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.43 for Colorado Rapids. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.19 for Colorado Rapids. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.68 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colorado Rapids rate 0.57 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Jose Earthquakes a 0.8% chance of the title and Colorado Rapids 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.19 for Colorado Rapids. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.35 for Colorado Rapids.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Jose Earthquakes at home · Colorado Rapids away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Jose Earthquakes 29, Colorado Rapids 29.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Colorado Rapids have let in 3 there.
Colorado Rapids score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
San Jose Earthquakes
- vs Real Salt Lake31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
- at Minnesota United FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Colorado Rapids
- vs Chicago Fire1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
- at FC Dallas8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.