Chrobry Głogów
vs
Polonia Bytom
Cup prediction
Our model says: Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Polonia Bytom
The model makes it 45% Chrobry Głogów, 27% draw, 28% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chrobry Głogów 1.58, Polonia Bytom 1.14.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Chrobry Głogów are 12th on 12 points from 10 games; Polonia Bytom are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Chrobry Głogów are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Last 2 meetings: Polonia Bytom 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 December 2025, ended Polonia Bytom 2–0 Chrobry Głogów.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Chrobry Głogów47%
- Level after ninety minutes26%
- Polonia Bytom27%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Bytom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chrobry Głogów at 45% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Bytom
Chrobry Głogów
- L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
- W2-0Ruch Chorzów30 August 2026
Polonia Bytom
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
- D0-0Podbeskidzie6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Chrobry Głogów failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chrobry Głogów had two goals or fewer.
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Bytom had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Bytom
- 7 December 2025Polonia Bytom 2–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 26 July 2025Chrobry Głogów 0–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chrobry Głogów carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.25 for Polonia Bytom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Chrobry Głogów and 1.14 for Polonia Bytom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chrobry Głogów rate 0.49 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Bytom rate 0.59 and 1.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chrobry Głogów the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów against 1.14 for Polonia Bytom. Chrobry Głogów's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.98 for Polonia Bytom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chrobry Głogów at home · Polonia Bytom away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Chrobry Głogów 10, Polonia Bytom 10.
Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 4 there.
Polonia Bytom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Chrobry Głogów have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Chrobry Głogów
- vs Arka Gdynia3 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- at Nieciecza7 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice21 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Unia Skierniewice28 Nov · I Ligawin 49%
Polonia Bytom
- vs Odra Opole2 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Lechia Gdansk8 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
- at Stal Rzeszów21 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- at Miedz Legnica28 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.