Rennes
vs
Strasbourg
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Rennes 2–1 Strasbourg
The model makes it 47% Rennes, 23% draw, 30% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Rennes 2.31, Strasbourg 1.75.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Rennes are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; Strasbourg are 11th on 7 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Rennes have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Auxerre.
- Strasbourg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Nice.
- Last 6 meetings: Rennes 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Strasbourg 0–3 Rennes.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rennes vs Strasbourg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rennes vs Strasbourg
Rennes
- W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Lyon19 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
Strasbourg
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rennes won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Strasbourg.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rennes
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
Strasbourg
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Strasbourg
Rennes and Strasbourg have met 6 times in the records we hold, Rennes has won 3 of them to Strasbourg's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Rennes won the last one 3–0 on 19 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 |
| Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Apr 2026
Ligue 1Strasbourg 0–3 Rennes - 2 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Rennes 4–1 Strasbourg - 2 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Rennes 1–0 Strasbourg - 25 Aug 2024
Ligue 1Strasbourg 3–1 Rennes - 31 Mar 2024
Ligue 1Strasbourg 2–0 Rennes - 29 Oct 2023
Ligue 1Rennes 1–1 Strasbourg
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Strasbourg | 1.13 | 1.19 |
Leading scorers: Rennes and Strasbourg
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul40
- A. Thomasson22
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.84 for Strasbourg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Rennes and 1.75 for Strasbourg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.15 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Strasbourg rate 1.13 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rennes a 3.7% chance of the title and Strasbourg 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Rennes against 1.75 for Strasbourg. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.15/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.19 for Strasbourg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rennes at home · Strasbourg away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RennesStrasbourg
Rennes are 3rd after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Strasbourg are 11th after 6 (between 4th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Rennes 6, Strasbourg 6.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Strasbourg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rennes
- at Nice31 Oct · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 38%
Strasbourg
- vs Auxerre1 Nov · Ligue 1win 55%
- at Toulouse6 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Stade Brestois 2921 Nov · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Le Havre28 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.