Molde
vs
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Molde 2–1 Fredrikstad
The model makes it 51% Molde, 25% draw, 24% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Molde 1.85, Fredrikstad 1.11.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Molde: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Molde are 4th on 37 points from 22 games; Fredrikstad are 8th on 29 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Molde have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Lillestrom.
- Fredrikstad are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tromso.
- Last 5 meetings: Fredrikstad 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2025, ended Molde 1–2 Fredrikstad.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Molde vs Fredrikstad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Molde at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Molde vs Fredrikstad
Molde
- D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026
- L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
Fredrikstad
- D1-1Tromso11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
What these results say
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Fredrikstad.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 37 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Molde
Chance to finish in the top four · 50% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Molde vs Fredrikstad
- 13 September 2025Molde 1–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 12 July 2025Fredrikstad 4–2 MoldeEliteserien
- 7 December 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 MoldeNM Cupen
- 14 September 2024Molde 6–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 13 July 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Molde and Fredrikstad
Molde
GoalsAssists
- E. Breivik88
- E. Hestad82
- K. Lonebu72
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Molde carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.55 for Fredrikstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Molde and 1.11 for Fredrikstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Molde rate 0.92 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fredrikstad rate 0.59 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Molde the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Molde against 1.11 for Fredrikstad. Molde's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.12 for Fredrikstad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Molde at home · Fredrikstad away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Molde 22, Fredrikstad 22.
Molde score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Fredrikstad have let in 4 there.
Fredrikstad score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Molde have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Molde
- at Brann1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
- at Sandefjord8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- vs Bodo/Glimt20 Nov · Eliteserienwin 28%
- at Rosenborg28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 28%
Fredrikstad
- vs Rosenborg31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 32%
- vs Brann8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
- at Ham-Kam21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- vs Aalesund29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.