St. Louis City
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: St. Louis City 2–1 Portland Timbers
The model makes it 59% St. Louis City, 21% draw, 20% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: St. Louis City 2.57, Portland Timbers 1.29.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to St. Louis City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- St. Louis City are 2nd on 51 points from 29 games; Portland Timbers are 10th on 33 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Vancouver Whitecaps.
- Portland Timbers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 September 2026, ended Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis City.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 59% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
St. Louis City
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps15 October 2026
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
Portland Timbers
- L0-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy15 October 2026
- D3-3away to Sporting Kansas City11 October 2026
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 51 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
St. Louis City
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 26% today
Portland Timbers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
- 10 September 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2025St. Louis City 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 8 June 2025Portland Timbers 2–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2024Portland Timbers 4–4 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Portland Timbers
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro175
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 51 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St. Louis City carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.42 for Portland Timbers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.57 goals for St. Louis City and 1.29 for Portland Timbers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Louis City rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portland Timbers rate 0.70 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Louis City a 25.5% chance of the title and Portland Timbers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.29 for Portland Timbers. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.65 for Portland Timbers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St. Louis City at home · Portland Timbers away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: St. Louis City 29, Portland Timbers 28.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); St. Louis City have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
St. Louis City
- vs San Diego31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 58%
- at Houston Dynamo8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
Portland Timbers
- vs Houston Dynamo2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 39%
- at Austin8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.