For journalists and editors
Fulltime Stats is an independent football model. Before every match on our board it publishes a probability for each result, the most likely scoreline and the expected goals behind them — for club football in more than 70 competitions and for national teams in the Nations League. You are welcome to quote any of it.
How to cite us
Name us as Fulltime Stats, and where your format allows a link, point it at the match page the figure comes from — every fixture has one, and it shows the number in context. For example:
The Fulltime Stats model gives Iceland a 40% chance of winning in Tallinn, with Estonia at 29% and the draw at 31% (fulltimestats.com).
A figure is the model's estimate at the time you read it. Upcoming matches are re-estimated as new results come in, so if timing matters, say when you took it: "as of Friday".
What we can give you
- Match probabilities — win, draw and loss, the likeliest scorelines, over/under and both-teams-to-score, for every fixture on the board, about two weeks ahead.
- National teams — every Nations League tie, rated on each side's recent internationals judged against the strength of the opponent, and anchored on the FIFA ranking.
- Season projections — title, European places and relegation odds for every league we project, on Title races.
- A note before a big match — write to us and we will send the model's figures for a specific fixture, or a short written read of them, in English.
Why you can check us
Every prediction is written to a log before kickoff and settled against the real result afterwards; the log is never edited. As of 3 October 2026 it holds 2,964 settled predictions in 75 competitions across 53 countries: the model called the right result in 47% of them and the exact scoreline in 10%. That is the whole record, including the competitions where we do badly — see the track record, accuracy by club and accuracy by competition, which update after every match. How the model works, and what it still gets wrong, is on the methodology page.
Independent
We take no money from bookmakers: no gambling advertising, no affiliate links, no operator sponsorship. The figures are statistical estimates, published for information — not betting advice, and not a forecast anyone should stake money on.
Contact
Write to [email protected]. Say which match or league you are working on and when you publish; we answer press requests first.