Olimpija Ljubljana
vs
Celje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Celje
The model makes it 36% Olimpija Ljubljana, 29% draw, 35% Celje — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.25, Celje 1.22.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Olimpija Ljubljana are 5th on 15 points from 11 games; Celje are 6th on 15 points from 10 games — 1. SNL.
- Olimpija Ljubljana have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Mura.
- Celje have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Aluminij.
- Last 6 meetings: Celje 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Celje 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpija Ljubljana at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
Olimpija Ljubljana
- D3-3Mura10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Koper12 September 2026
- W3-0Brinje-Grosuplje5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radomlje29 August 2026
Celje
- W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mura20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo12 September 2026
- L0-1Koper6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aluminij2 September 2026
What these results say
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celje had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
- 8 August 2026Celje 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 15 April 2026Celje 2–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 8 February 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 3–1 Celje1. SNL
- 4 December 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 CeljeCup
- 18 October 2025Celje 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 3 August 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 0–5 Celje1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olimpija Ljubljana carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.61 for Celje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.22 for Celje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olimpija Ljubljana rate 0.62 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celje rate 0.77 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpija Ljubljana a 3.7% chance of the title and Celje 20.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Olimpija Ljubljana against 1.22 for Celje. Olimpija Ljubljana's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.24 for Celje.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olimpija Ljubljana at home · Celje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Olimpija Ljubljana 11, Celje 10.
Olimpija Ljubljana score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Celje have let in 3 there.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Olimpija Ljubljana have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Olimpija Ljubljana
- at Maribor31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 23%
- at Nafta7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 32%
- vs Radomlje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 60%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 39%
Celje
- vs Nafta1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.