Polonia Warszawa
vs
Korona Kielce
Cup prediction
Our model says: Polonia Warszawa 0–1 Korona Kielce
The model makes it 29% Polonia Warszawa, 28% draw, 43% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Polonia Warszawa 1.10, Korona Kielce 1.47.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Korona Kielce: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Polonia Warszawa are 2nd in I Liga on 17 points from 10 games; Korona Kielce are 8th in Ekstraklasa on 15 points from 10 games.
- Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Arka Gdynia.
- Korona Kielce have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Pogon Szczecin.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Polonia Warszawa28%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Korona Kielce45%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
Polonia Warszawa
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Rzeszów5 September 2026
- L2-4Lechia Gdansk29 August 2026
Korona Kielce
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Warszawa had three goals or more.
- Korona Kielce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: I Liga · Ekstraklasa
Head-to-head: Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
- 28 June 2025Korona Kielce 0–0 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce
Polonia Warszawa
No player in I Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Polonia Warszawa carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.61 for Korona Kielce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.47 for Korona Kielce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polonia Warszawa rate 0.61 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Korona Kielce rate 0.68 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Korona Kielce the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Polonia Warszawa against 1.47 for Korona Kielce. Polonia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.11 for Korona Kielce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polonia Warszawa at home · Korona Kielce away
League matches only, this season — Polonia Warszawa in the I Liga, Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Polonia Warszawa 10 in the I Liga, Korona Kielce 10 in the Ekstraklasa.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Korona Kielce have let in 6 there.
Korona Kielce score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Polonia Warszawa
- at ŁKS Łódź2 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- at Warta Poznań7 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Stal Mielec21 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
- at Odra Opole28 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
Korona Kielce
- at Zaglebie Lubin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Radomiak Radom7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 52%
- at Piast Gliwice21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 27%
- vs Cracovia Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.